October 26, 2015 at 1:10 pm

2015-2016 Winter Forecast Projections

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102615b

The 2015-2016 Winter Projections will have El Nino factoring in a lot, however this year’s El Nino will be different than usual for some locations, find out the pattern for your area by reading on …

A +2.5c ENSO value was reached, a never before seen number in recorded history for El Nino.  A colder El Nino is expected for the Southern tier of the country, including the Southwestern United States.  The storm track will be caught through the southern end and bring a lot of potential for nor’easters across the Southeast and Carolinas.  On top of this, the colder air would bring snowfall potential on the rise for the Southern Plains.  The separate surface low track would track through Kansas and bring blizzard conditions to Omaha, much like the 09-10 season.

El Nino typically brings drier air to the Pacific Northwest … however with the ridge at 140 longitude we will see cold arctic air embedded into the storms that hit and a low pressure center would get stuck offshore of California and Oregon, bringing in a double jet-stream pattern mixed with a tropical jet … which would also aim storms at the Pacific Northwest.  So equally, the rainfall will be there as well … not your typical El Nino.  The pineapple express pattern would be centered on San Francisco this year, which means the Sierra Nevada will regain a healthy snow-pack.  Given the colder than normal temperatures projected, Southern California’s mountains will also get a healthy snowpack, similar to the 80s and 90s.

Drier than normal conditions are likely for the Michigan areas … because we are lacking the arctic air blast that was present the last four years, in-which gave the area frequent lake-effect snow events.  These will not be as prominent during the Winter, but maybe during the Fall until December hits.  Of course until then for the rest of the Fall, expecting Colder than normal temperatures for the eastern half of the country and warmer out west.

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