The track of this system into Western Cuba or even through the Cuba/Mexico corridor is apparent and easy to forecast, but the race is on for the storm to be named either Hermine or Ian with a central impact somewhere near Florida by the middle of this next week.
There is a depression west of Africa that poses no threat to the United States, but still is eligible for the next Atlantic Hurricane Season name on the list, which is Hermine. If the system that is targeting the United States this next week does not get named before, the next name would be Ian. Ian to me sounds more threatening than Hermine so I am rooting for Ian to be the one that I am speaking of.
This hurricane will latch into the trough moving through the Eastern United States this weekend and be pulled fairly quickly to the north through Cuba on Tuesday and then try to impact Western Florida on Wednesday. Hurricanes that turn north like this out of the Caribbean tend to strengthen extremely fast, so the chances of this becoming a major hurricane (category three or higher) is definitely there.
The only thing I have against a solid Florida track at the moment is how long the trough can hold the system before it snaps back westward. Some of my numbers want to hold the hurricane west of Florida before it decides what to do. I cannot give a solid high confidence in the track right now so everyone should continue to monitor the system, which is why my cone (in the image) is on the large side.
One thing I can be confident of is NASA’s next Artemis Moon launch attempt on Tuesday September 27th just before noon Florida time will be directly affected and the chances of a weather related scrub of the launch is high.
Still, I will continue to update as I get better confidence …
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