Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday late afternoon through evening, with risks of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.
States and Cities Impacted: Oklahoma (Tulsa, Oklahoma City), Texas (Amarillo).
Detailed Forecast:
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, creating a significant potential for severe weather in the region. Enhanced wind shear, with values around 40-50 knots in the 0-6 km layer, will support organized storm structures, including supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and potentially a few tornadoes.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 2000-3000 J/kg, particularly in southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. A surface low will likely begin near the Colorado/Kansas/Oklahoma border, with a cold front extending southeastward into east Texas. This interaction of moist air with the advancing upper-level trough will create an environment conducive to severe thunderstorm development, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Timing:
The day will start with thunderstorms likely ongoing from southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, supported by warm-air advection across the front. These storms are expected to gradually shift southeastward while weakening. By late afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the outflow boundaries and the front, with peak activity from mid-afternoon to early evening. The storms will likely diminish in intensity by late evening.
Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor, partner and Co-Owner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC (which own NWF, SCWF, AZWF and DWF), they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.