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June 3, 2021 at 11:57 AM

Summer 2021 Forecast For The United States; Above Average Pacific Hurricane Season; Average Atlantic Hurricane Season; But A Number Of Landfalls

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La Nina has officially died and we have transitioned into a neutral pattern, which is neither La Nina or El Nino.  This will last through Summer 2021 so what does that mean for us?  I expect an above-average hurricane season for the Pacific and an average number for the Atlantic.  However, this season bodes well for a number of Atlantic Hurricane landfalls stretching up the East Coast, a wet Pacific Northwest, a good Southwest Monsoon, and an interesting season to come so read on for details.

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ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON:  Due to the La Nina fading fast into neutral, there is a toss-up on what kind of season it will be.  La Nina generally brings more hurricane numbers to the area and El Nino lower.  This is a toss-up so I’ll go right in the middle and go with an average season.  An average season does not mean it will not be a dangerous one.  In fact, the placement of the monsoon ridge in the Southwestern United States along with the Bermuda High with the trough between it on the East Coast tells me the season will have a number of landfalls.  Louisiana should look out once again, as well as the Carolinas.  These systems will form east of the country and move west, curving north and impacting the region.  A number of these will do so this season.   One may even sneak fast up to New England in that case.

PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON:  Due to the La Nina fading fast into neutral, there is a toss-up on what kind of season it will be.  La Nina generally brings fewer hurricane numbers to the area and El Nino more.  I will not go into a toss-up like with the Atlantic Basin forecast.  The jet stream will shove far north and this will allow for less shear down there.  Two named storms have already formed, the last one Blanca.  The season is starting early in response to the upper jet pushing northward.  This will mean that the basin would have an above-average hurricane season.  Some of these will curve and impact Baja, Mexico – including Cabo San Lucas.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON:  As hurricanes form west of Mexico, moisture within the outflow gets shoved northward towards our area. Of course, Arizona will always get the most activity, but the ridge shoving moisture eastward into Southern California will be in place this time, especially in July. This season however will be one where it fluctuates by month. I see July being active, but between then and September we will see a dry spell … then get whacked again towards the end of Monsoon Season. Monsoon Season goes from June 15th to September 15th.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST:  Idaho will certainly have an above-average temperature summer due to the monsoon exhaust flow out of the south and associated humidity.  However, the upper jet stream continuing to bring systems into Western Canada and The Pacific Northwest looks prominent.  I’ll keep the area under above-average Summer rainfall events as a result of this.

CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES: The stream of moisture coming in from Texas northward would work with the upper-level jet stream to bring a number of tornadoes to these areas through this season, some of them will be strong, especially in areas around the Upper Midwest.


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