Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Isolated Tornadoes Possible; Across Mid Missouri Valley; June 15th


Severe storms are possible across the Mid Missouri Valley area on Saturday, from late afternoon through the evening hours, given the conducive atmospheric conditions.

These storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. For detailed information on timing, impacts, and more, refer below.

Overall Forecast:

A southern-stream shortwave trough, containing multiple convectively enhanced embedded impulses—enhanced from today’s activity—is expected to reach the Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon.

The most significant severe weather threat is likely to come from one such Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) as it moves toward the Mid-Missouri Valley in the late afternoon. Although mid-level lapse rates near the MCV will be weaker, the presence of relatively strong low-level flow ahead of the broader trough will compensate for this deficiency.

A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy, characterized by very strong instability and supported by increased low-level moisture, is anticipated along a boundary extending northwest into the Mid-Missouri Valley. 

Across the Middle of Missouri Valley:

Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV, with several potentially developing into supercells due to enhanced low-level shear and changes in wind with height.

There is a potential for a couple of rotating storms capable of producing a few isolated tornadoes, along with a risk for large hail and damaging winds, developing during the late afternoon through the evening before dissipating overnight

Coverage Details:

Storms are expected to form ahead of an MCV in the late afternoon, affecting areas from southeastern Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, and possibly extending into the western portion of Missouri.

These storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through the evening before diminishing very quickly later in the evening hours.

Main Risk: large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and CG (cloud to ground) lightning.

Stay tuned for more updates.

With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor and partner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.

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