Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds and Hail Expected in the Ozarks and Ohio Valley; July 3, 2024

Brief Outlook:

Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, with risks of damaging winds and hail. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.

States and Cities Impacted: Missouri (St. Louis, Springfield), Illinois (Springfield, Chicago), Ohio (Cincinnati, Columbus).

Detailed Forecast:

An upper-level shortwave impulse will develop northeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will be somewhat displaced from the richer moisture and instability across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will move south/southeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, potentially stalling from northern Missouri into Lower Michigan. This will create a corridor of moderate to strong instability, with values reaching 2000-3000 J/kg, supported by surface dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger daytime heating.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, primarily posing a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. Enhanced wind shear in the mid and upper levels will aid in the organization of these storm clusters.


Morning cloud cover and possibly residual showers will be present over northern Missouri and Illinois. Severe thunderstorms are likely to initiate by early afternoon, with peak activity expected from mid-afternoon to early evening as the storms move southeastward. These storms will weaken after sunset.

Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail (mostly isolated) & lightning.

Stay tuned for more updates.

With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor, partner and Co-Owner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC (which own NWF, SCWF, AZWF and DWF), they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.

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